BC Real Estate Outlook: What to Expect in the Second Half of 2025
📊 Overview: A Market at a Crossroads
As we move into the second half of 2025, the British Columbia real estate market stands at a critical juncture. Following a volatile few years marked by inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and shifting buyer behavior, the landscape in Greater Vancouver and across the province is showing early signs of stabilization — but not without underlying uncertainties.
While benchmark home prices have begun to level off in most submarkets, buyer activity remains cautious. With mortgage rates expected to decline slightly in the latter half of 2025, there’s growing optimism — tempered by affordability concerns, limited housing supply, and slow development pipelines.
📈 Key Trends Shaping BC’s Housing Market in 2025
1.
Mortgage Rates Easing — But Gradually
- The Bank of Canada’s June rate cut of 25 basis points — its first since 2020 — has been welcomed by buyers and brokers alike.
- Fixed rates remain in the 4.8%–5.2% range, but economists anticipate another rate cut before year-end if inflation trends downward.
- Slight increases in mortgage pre-approvals suggest buyers are positioning for fall market activity.
Expert Insight:
“We’re seeing renewed interest in pre-sale projects and fixed-rate mortgages. Buyers are cautiously optimistic, but rate sensitivity is still strong.”
— Mark Jennings, Senior Mortgage Broker, Vancouver
2.
Home Prices Stabilizing in Key Markets
According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the composite benchmark price for all residential properties is now hovering around $1.19M, representing a 0.4% monthly increase and 1.2% year-over-year rise as of May 2025.
- Detached homes are showing modest strength in East Vancouver, Richmond, and Surrey.
- Condo prices remain soft in some downtown cores but are holding steady in transit-oriented suburbs.
3.
Inventory Still Tight Despite Slower Sales
New listings have ticked up, but total active inventory remains below the 10-year average, especially for entry-level detached homes and townhouses.
- Sales-to-active listings ratio sits at 18.7%, indicating a balanced market—but with regional variation.
- Inventory levels are particularly low in Burnaby, North Vancouver, and Port Moody.
🏘️ Regional Spotlights: Greater Vancouver & Beyond
| Region | Benchmark Price | YoY Price Change | Notable Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown Vancouver | $848,000 | -1.3% | Softening condo resale market |
| Surrey (Fleetwood) | $1.24M | +3.8% | Stronger interest in detached |
| Richmond | $1.38M | +2.5% | Demand shifting to duplexes |
| Kelowna | $790,000 | -0.8% | More balanced buyer/seller mix |
🧭 Opportunities and Risks: Who Should Act Now?
✅ For Buyers
- Opportunity: Reduced competition and rate drops could improve affordability by fall.
- Risk: Short-term price dips may continue in some condo submarkets — don’t overleverage.
✅ For Investors
- Opportunity: Purpose-built rentals and transit-proximate townhomes show strong rental yields.
- Risk: High carrying costs persist; assess cap rates carefully.
✅ For Developers
- Opportunity: Policy support (e.g., Housing Accelerator Fund) could unlock stalled zoning.
- Risk: Labour shortages and permitting delays continue to impact project timelines.
🧠 Policy Watch: What to Monitor in H2 2025
- Federal Housing Accelerator Fund: Funding is being disbursed to key BC municipalities; local densification plans will follow.
- BC’s Speculation and Vacancy Tax: Expansion to more regions could impact investment decisions.
- Zoning Reforms: Vancouver and Burnaby moving toward streamlined approvals for multi-family housing.
🔮 Market Outlook: What’s Ahead for Fall & Winter 2025?
| Factor | Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | Gradual decline | Encourages buyer re-entry |
| Inventory | Remains tight | Sustains price floor |
| Government Policy | Pro-housing | May accelerate multi-family supply |
| Buyer Sentiment | Improving slowly | Expect modest volume increases |
Expect a modest fall rally in the housing market — particularly if interest rates drop again by October. However, meaningful affordability improvements will depend on structural changes in supply, not just financial conditions.
📌 Final Thoughts
While British Columbia’s real estate market isn’t headed for a boom, the worst of the correction may be behind us. The second half of 2025 offers cautious optimism for buyers and investors alike — especially those who are prepared, patient, and well-advised.
Whether you’re watching rates, tracking neighborhood trends, or planning to enter the market, now is a critical time to stay informed and nimble.
