As we head into the fall of 2025, the Vancouver real estate market is showing early signs of a shift. After years of sellers holding the upper hand, a rise in active listings across Metro Vancouver suggests buyers may finally have more negotiating power. But does this mean prices will soften, or are we simply seeing a seasonal adjustment?
Mortgage & Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada’s recent series of rate cuts has provided a small dose of relief for buyers. While variable mortgage rates remain above the ultra-low levels of 2020 and 2021, they are finally trending downward, with some lenders offering five-year fixed rates below 5 percent. For households stretched by higher borrowing costs over the last two years, this easing has renewed interest in both presale condos and resale homes.
That said, affordability remains strained. The average detached home in Vancouver still sits above $1.8 million, and while lower rates improve monthly payments, qualification stress tests continue to limit how far buyers can stretch. The real test this fall will be whether reduced borrowing costs actually translate into stronger sales or if affordability challenges keep demand restrained.
Housing Supply in Metro Vancouver
Active listings in Greater Vancouver are up nearly 25 percent compared to last summer, climbing to their highest levels since 2019. Much of this increase has come from condos and townhomes, as investors look to cash out and some homeowners brace for mortgage renewals at higher rates.
Presale inventory is also building. Developers in Burnaby, Coquitlam, and Surrey have adjusted their sales strategies, offering incentives such as reduced deposits, decorating allowances, and even limited-time price adjustments. For buyers, this means more choice and in some cases, the opportunity to negotiate upgrades or better terms.
For sellers, however, the competition is heating up. Homes that are priced even slightly above market value are sitting longer, while sharp, competitive pricing is what is moving units quickly.
Market Trends Across Canada
Vancouver is not alone in this balancing act. Toronto is also seeing a rise in active listings, particularly in condos, where investor sales are adding to supply. Calgary, meanwhile, remains the outlier: migration-driven demand continues to fuel price growth, making it one of Canada’s hottest markets.
Nationally, the Canadian housing market appears to be settling into a more balanced territory. While 2022 and 2023 were defined by rapid rate hikes that cooled demand, 2024 and 2025 have been characterized by gradual adjustments, a tug of war between improving borrowing conditions and lingering affordability constraints.
North American & Global Context
Looking south, U.S. housing markets are experiencing similar patterns. In cities like Seattle and San Francisco, more inventory has come online, giving buyers a rare opportunity to negotiate after years of fierce bidding wars. However, much like Vancouver, affordability remains the biggest barrier.
Globally, major housing hubs like Sydney and London are also entering correction phases after years of double-digit growth. The common thread is higher borrowing costs combined with stretched affordability, which are tempering demand even as immigration and population growth continue to add pressure on supply.
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers in Vancouver
For buyers, fall 2025 may be the best window in years to secure a property without the frenzy of multiple offers. More listings, slightly lower rates, and motivated sellers create conditions where patience and negotiation can pay off.
For sellers, realistic pricing and strategic marketing are more important than ever. With more competition, standing out requires thoughtful preparation, staging, professional photography, and pricing aligned with the market rather than last year’s peak.
What to Watch Next Week
All eyes will be on September’s housing data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Sales-to-active listings ratios will reveal whether the market is moving toward true balance or if sellers still maintain the edge. Additionally, any new policy announcements from the BC government, particularly around housing supply and affordability, could play a key role in shaping buyer sentiment this fall.