Housing Starts Are Slowing in Vancouver — Just as Demand Is About to Return

The latest data from CMHC shows that housing starts in British Columbia have fallen sharply in 2025, marking the first sustained slowdown since the pandemic. Across Metro Vancouver, construction of new homes — especially condos and purpose-built rentals — is trending lower than last year.

That wouldn’t normally raise alarms, but this time it’s happening right as interest rates begin to fall and homebuyer confidence starts creeping back. The timing couldn’t be worse.

Fewer Shovels, Higher Pressure

According to CMHC’s September report, national housing starts are down roughly 9% year-over-year, with B.C. leading the decline. Vancouver saw a notable drop in multi-family projects, particularly large-scale condo and rental developments that fuel urban supply.

Developers point to several reasons:

• Rising construction and financing costs
• Labour shortages that have persisted since the pandemic
• Difficulty securing pre-sales or lender approvals in a cautious market

For presale developers, high interest rates over the past 18 months made it difficult to meet bank pre-sale requirements. Even as rates start to ease, lenders are still demanding stronger absorption and higher equity from builders. That hesitation is delaying projects across Burnaby, Coquitlam, and Surrey — areas that were once hotbeds for new launches.

Why It Matters Now

The slowdown might not hit immediately, but it’s setting up a supply gap that could appear by late 2026 or 2027. Once interest rates stabilize and demand rebounds, there will be fewer completed homes ready for occupancy, creating renewed upward pressure on prices and rents.

Vancouver already faces one of the lowest rental vacancy rates in the country. With population growth still outpacing completions, the province’s housing shortage isn’t just continuing — it’s worsening.

The Hidden Risk Behind the Numbers

What’s concerning isn’t just the decline in construction, but where it’s happening. Most of the slowdown is concentrated in mid-rise and high-rise developments — the exact segments that deliver the largest number of units in urban centers.

Townhome and low-rise projects are holding up slightly better, partly because they’re smaller and require less financing, but they can’t make up for the lost scale. If this trend continues, Greater Vancouver could fall short of CMHC’s own target of 570,000 new homes needed by 2030 to restore affordability.

For Buyers: Fewer Choices Ahead

If you’re a buyer waiting for prices to fall further, this is worth watching closely. Fewer new projects mean:

• Less competition among developers, which keeps prices firm
• Reduced inventory in the resale market as homeowners hold onto their properties
• Higher rental costs as fewer purpose-built rentals come online

In short, the longer construction lags, the harder it becomes for affordability to improve — even in a cooling economy.

For Developers: A Window to Re-Launch

Ironically, the coming year could be a strategic window for developers who stayed quiet during the rate-hike cycle. As borrowing costs ease and competitors remain hesitant, those who launch with realistic pricing and attractive deposit structures may capture pent-up demand early.

We’re already seeing this play out in Coquitlam and Brentwood, where projects with 5% deposits and limited incentives are drawing attention again. Buyers who recognize value are coming back.

What To Watch Next

CMHC’s next housing supply update will show whether the fall slowdown carries into 2026. If multi-family starts continue to slide, expect to hear renewed calls for government support, zoning flexibility, and development fee relief.

At the same time, keep an eye on new project announcements in Metro Vancouver. If developers stay cautious while buyers regain confidence, inventory could tighten faster than expected — setting the stage for the next price upswing.

Takeaway: The Calm Before the Crunch

Vancouver’s housing market has always been defined by imbalance. This construction slowdown might look like a lull, but it’s more likely the setup for the next shortage.

If interest rates keep falling and immigration continues at even a modest pace, the market could find itself back in familiar territory: too few homes, too many buyers, and another affordability challenge on the horizon.

What If Trade Wars Hit Home Prices? How Tariffs Could Spill Into Vancouver Real Estate

Trade tensions are back, and they’re closer to home than most Canadians realize.

Last week, the U.S. abruptly terminated trade negotiations with Canada after a political dispute involving Ontario’s government advertising. It sounds minor, but the consequences could be major. With cross-border talks frozen and retaliatory tariffs being hinted at, economists are warning of a new wave of economic uncertainty that could quietly seep into Vancouver’s housing market.

Canada’s Fragile Balancing Act

Canada relies heavily on exports: everything from lumber and energy to agriculture and manufactured goods. Roughly 75% of Canadian exports go to the United States, and British Columbia is at the heart of that trade, shipping billions in forestry and natural resources across the border each year.

So when tariff talks stall, the ripple effects start right here:

• Slower exports lead to weaker business investment
• Job losses in manufacturing, logistics, and energy sectors
• Lower consumer confidence, the real killer of housing demand

In short, if trade freezes, housing feels it.

The Vancouver Connection

Vancouver’s real estate market doesn’t exist in isolation. It thrives on confidence, capital, and population growth. If tariffs and supply chain disruptions hit the West Coast economy, several things could happen:

1. Employment risk: Reduced demand for B.C. exports can directly affect employment in ports, shipping, and forestry, industries that indirectly sustain local housing demand.
2. Developer hesitancy: Construction materials already cost more due to global shipping volatility. Tariffs on imports, especially from the U.S., could drive up construction costs again, delaying new presale launches or forcing developers to raise prices.
3. Weaker dollar = mixed blessing: The Canadian dollar has already drifted toward $0.70 USD. While that could attract international buyers back to Vancouver’s luxury segment, it also means imported materials, appliances, and fuel cost more, squeezing builders and households alike.

So while trade headlines may sound distant, their aftershocks are felt in the very bones of our city’s economy and its skyline.

The Macro Risk No One Wants to Talk About

A prolonged tariff battle could push Canada toward a mild recession, or at least the perception of one. That alone could cause credit tightening as banks price in higher risk even as interest rates come down.

Imagine this scenario:

• The Bank of Canada cuts rates to support the economy
• The Canadian dollar weakens further
• Imports get more expensive, nudging inflation up again
• The central bank is forced to pause or reverse cuts right when the housing market was starting to recover

That’s a dangerous feedback loop, and one Vancouver’s leveraged homeowners would feel quickly.

Real Estate’s “Tariff Premium”

We often talk about location premiums, but we might soon start talking about tariff premiums.

Developers already battling high financing costs may soon face new price pressures from imported steel, lumber, and finishes. If these costs rise, expect fewer new projects or even cancellations of marginal presales. This, ironically, could tighten long-term supply and keep resale prices supported, even in a weaker economy.

So paradoxically, tariffs could create short-term pain but long-term scarcity, a familiar theme in Greater Vancouver real estate.

What To Watch Next

Eyes are now on Ottawa and Washington. If negotiations don’t resume soon, expect more volatility in the Canadian dollar and resource sectors. For real estate watchers:

• Keep an eye on construction costs, a leading indicator for presale pricing
• Watch employment data in B.C.’s trade-exposed industries
• Monitor U.S.–Canada relations ahead of the U.S. election cycle, as trade policy often becomes political theater

If this tension drags into 2026, don’t be surprised if Vancouver developers start pricing in higher contingencies or delaying new releases.

Takeaway: When Trade Wobbles, Real Estate Trembles

Tariffs don’t just hit factory floors. They ripple into mortgages, materials, and market psychology.

For Vancouver, where confidence and cost of construction drive everything from presale absorption to resale stability, this trade standoff could be the quiet storm no one saw coming.

So the next time you hear about “tariffs on lumber or steel,” don’t scroll past. It might be the new interest rate story in disguise.

“More Cuts Coming?” — Why Experts Say Interest Rates Could Keep Falling Into 2026

If you thought the latest rate cut was the end of the story — think again.

After trimming the overnight rate to 2.50% in September, many analysts now believe the Bank of Canada isn’t done yet. Forecasts from major banks, including CIBC and TD, suggest the policy rate could drop to around 2.25% — or even lower — by mid-2026.

That’s a bold call. And it could reshape the real estate landscape in Vancouver and across Canada in a major way.

The Case for More Cuts

Economists are pointing to one uncomfortable reality: Canada is in a “per-capita recession.”

Even though GDP numbers haven’t officially signaled a broad recession, output per person is shrinking. Wages are flat, consumers are tapped out, and household debt remains sky-high.

Benjamin Tal of CIBC summed it up bluntly: “The Bank needs to cut faster. The economy is softening faster than expected.”

That sentiment is shared across much of Bay Street — and for good reason. Mortgage renewals are still rolling over at rates double or triple what owners locked in during 2020–2021. Unless the central bank keeps easing, delinquencies and forced sales could start rising in 2026.

Vancouver’s Market Is Watching Closely

In Greater Vancouver, rate expectations influence everything — from presale condo launches to resale listings. Here’s what a continued downward trend could mean:

• Renewed buyer confidence: Lower rates restore purchasing power and help buyers qualify under the stress test.
• Developers may re-enter: Several presale projects have delayed launches this year; further cuts could revive stalled phases or trigger incentive programs to catch spring momentum.
• Upward price pressure risk: If demand rebounds too quickly and supply remains thin, the soft landing could easily turn into another bidding-war cycle — something policymakers desperately want to avoid.

We’re already seeing early signs: smaller detached homes and well-priced condos in Burnaby, Coquitlam, and Richmond are getting more multiple offers again. Buyers who were silent six months ago are back in inboxes and showrooms.

The Bigger Economic Picture

A faster-than-expected easing cycle could weaken the Canadian dollar, which is already flirting near $0.70 USD. That might boost exports and tourism, but it also makes imported goods — and construction materials — more expensive.

If inflation ticks back up, the Bank of Canada will find itself in a tricky spot: ease too slowly and risk recession; ease too fast and risk reigniting inflation.

Either way, the housing market will feel it first. Rate cuts flow through to variable mortgages and renewals quickly, shifting sentiment long before fundamentals catch up.

Is This the Bottom for Borrowing Costs?

Probably not yet — but we’re closer than we’ve been in years.

By late 2026, many forecasters see the overnight rate stabilizing between 2.0% and 2.25%, which could translate to five-year fixed mortgages in the low-4s or even high-3s.

That might sound small, but in Vancouver’s price environment, even a half-point rate drop can mean $200–$300 less per month on an average condo mortgage — the difference between “can afford” and “can’t qualify.”

What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

For those waiting on the sidelines: this next 6-12 months could be pivotal.

• Buyers might finally see affordability edge back within reach — especially if competition stays manageable.
• Sellers could benefit from a busier spring as more qualified buyers re-enter the market.
• Investors should be cautious: if rates drop too fast, renewed speculation could draw regulatory attention once again.

The psychology of “the bottom” can move markets faster than the actual economics ever do.

Takeaway: A Window Is Opening — But It Won’t Stay Open Forever

Vancouver’s market moves in waves, and this next one may already be forming. The combination of rate cuts, pent-up demand, and limited inventory could make 2026 a year of renewed momentum.

If you’ve been waiting for a signal from the Bank of Canada — this might be it. Just remember: when confidence returns to this market, it rarely walks — it runs.

Bank of Canada’s Rate Cut: A Relief for Homebuyers or Too Little, Too Late?

The Bank of Canada finally hit the brakes — again. On September 17, 2025, the central bank cut its key overnight rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it down to 2.50%, marking the third cut since spring. For Vancouver’s real estate market — where affordability remains stretched beyond reason — this move couldn’t have come soon enough.

But the big question now is: will this actually help homebuyers, or has the damage already been done?

The Return of “Rate Cut Hope”

After nearly two years of painful rate hikes, this is the first time in recent memory that the market feels like it’s turning a corner. Fixed mortgage rates have already started to drift below 4.5%, and variable rates are following close behind.

For homebuyers in Greater Vancouver, especially first-timers and investors eyeing presale condos, this shift could be the signal they’ve been waiting for.

• Lower rates mean better qualification ratios under the mortgage stress test.
• Renewals for 2020–2021 buyers won’t look as terrifying.
• And developers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines may finally pull the trigger on their next phase.

The immediate reaction? More foot traffic at open houses, slightly higher inquiries for new presales, and early signs of buyer optimism creeping back into conversations that have been quiet for months.

“Too Little, Too Late?” — The Other Side of the Story

Still, not everyone is convinced. Critics argue that the Bank of Canada waited too long to act. By holding rates higher for longer, household debt costs piled up, consumer spending slowed, and confidence in major urban markets — especially Vancouver and Toronto — took a noticeable hit.

For some, this cut feels more like damage control than stimulus. The cost of borrowing may be coming down, but inflation-adjusted wages haven’t caught up. Add in record immigration levels, limited housing supply, and slow construction starts, and many argue the real estate problem isn’t interest rates — it’s structural.

What This Means for the Vancouver Housing Market

The ripple effects will take time, but expect these key shifts over the next few months:

• Mortgage renewals: Many 2020-era buyers rolling off fixed terms will feel some breathing room.
• Presale activity: Developers may re-evaluate deposit structures or pricing as sentiment improves.
• Resale stabilization: Detached and townhouse segments could see more active buyers as monthly payments ease.
• Rental market pressure: Lower mortgage costs could pull some renters back into ownership, easing rental demand slightly — though affordability will remain the main hurdle.

In other words, Vancouver might be entering a “soft landing” phase rather than a rebound. The next two rate announcements will determine whether this is a sustained trend or a brief sigh of relief.

A Glimpse Across the Border

Interestingly, the U.S. Federal Reserve is still holding steady on its benchmark rate, waiting for clearer inflation data before following suit. If Canada continues cutting while the U.S. holds, the Canadian dollar could weaken, making imports more expensive and potentially pushing inflation back up.

That tension between stimulus and stability could define the next six months of economic policy — and it’s exactly why analysts are split on whether this cut was wise or premature.

The Takeaway: Cautious Optimism

For buyers and sellers in Greater Vancouver, this is a psychological turning point. The worst of the rate cycle appears to be behind us, but the market’s recovery will hinge on consumer confidence, job stability, and whether the next few cuts actually materialize.

If you’re planning to purchase, refinance, or invest, this might be the window to act before momentum returns — because once confidence builds, Vancouver’s market rarely moves slowly.

What to Watch Next Week:

All eyes will be on October’s CPI report and any new commentary from the Bank of Canada. If inflation stays muted, another rate cut in early 2026 could be on the table — and that could be the catalyst for Vancouver’s next mini-rally.

Related reading: Could a Weaker Dollar Push Vancouver Toward Recession?

The Assignment Market in Vancouver: When It’s a Good Deal and When It’s a Trap

In every real estate cycle, there is quiet chatter about assignment deals. Some buyers see them as a shortcut to skip years of waiting on a presale, while others view them as a warning sign. In 2025, with higher interest rates and shifting prices, assignment listings have become increasingly common across Brentwood, Coquitlam, and Surrey.

But what exactly is an assignment sale, and when can it be an opportunity versus a financial mistake?

Understanding What an Assignment Sale Is

An assignment sale happens when a buyer who originally purchased a presale condo decides to transfer their contract to someone else before completion. The new buyer, known as the assignee, takes over the rights and responsibilities from the original buyer, who is called the assignor.

You are not buying the completed property itself but rather the contract for that property. When construction is finished, the assignee steps in as the official buyer on completion day and registers the home under their name.

Why Assignment Sales Are Increasing in 2025

A few years ago, assignments were rare. Developers were selling out quickly, and few buyers wanted to give up their contracts. Today, the landscape has changed. Higher mortgage rates have made it harder for some buyers to qualify for financing, while others simply want to cash out before completion. Investors who bought multiple units during the presale boom are also re-evaluating their portfolios and choosing to assign certain contracts to reduce exposure.

As a result, there are more assignment opportunities than we have seen in years, but they come with both potential rewards and risks.

When an Assignment Can Be a Smart Move

Buying an assignment can make sense when you want a newer home without waiting years for construction to finish. Many assignments are only a few months away from completion, allowing buyers to move in sooner or start earning rental income more quickly.

Another advantage is price. If the original purchaser bought at an earlier phase when the developer’s prices were lower, you may step into that contract at a below-market value. This was especially common in projects launched in 2021 and 2022, when presales were priced aggressively before the rate hikes.

Assignments can also be the only way to access sold-out projects. For sought-after developments in Burnaby’s Brentwood or Vancouver’s River District, assignments are often the only path to secure a home in a completed tower.

In some cases, the price of the assignment already includes GST, which can save buyers thousands at closing. Always confirm this with your realtor or lawyer before committing.

When an Assignment Can Turn Into a Risk

Assignments can also be problematic if the numbers no longer make sense. In recent years, developers have priced projects based on future market gains. If the market softens before completion, buyers who step into those contracts may end up paying above current market value.

Financing can also be difficult. Many lenders are cautious with assignments and may not provide firm approval until the building is close to completion. This uncertainty can create stress if your approval or rate changes near the finish line.

Most developers also require written consent before a contract can be assigned, and they charge an assignment fee that typically ranges from one to three percent of the purchase price. On a $900,000 condo, that fee could be as high as $27,000, paid by either the seller or buyer depending on the negotiation.

Another risk is inheriting the original buyer’s contract terms. You cannot renegotiate with the developer, so you must accept whatever deposit schedule, upgrade decisions, or completion timelines were originally agreed upon.

The biggest risk appears when prices fall. Imagine an original buyer purchased a presale in 2021 for $900,000, but by 2025 similar homes are selling for $850,000. The buyer may try to assign the contract, but anyone taking over that agreement is paying more than current market value. If the new buyer completes at that price, they start with negative equity.

Tips for Navigating the Assignment Market

Before buying an assignment, verify that the price aligns with comparable new and resale homes nearby. Ask your realtor or lawyer to review the original purchase agreement carefully and explain the developer’s assignment policy. Make sure you understand the GST treatment, assignment fees, and deposit structure.

If you need financing, start discussions early. Provide your lender with a copy of the full contract and confirm that they are comfortable funding assignment purchases. Lastly, confirm that the developer has approved the transfer before you commit to any payment.

The Bottom Line

The assignment market in Vancouver can be an incredible opportunity or an expensive mistake. In the right circumstances, it lets you move into a new home faster, sometimes at a better price, and in projects that are already sold out. In the wrong situation, it can leave you paying more than the home is worth or scrambling for financing at completion.

In today’s shifting market, success comes down to due diligence. Compare every assignment to similar resale and presale options, and always get professional advice before signing.